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H1N1 Swine Flu graph of confirmed cases and death estimate 22-Jun

June 23, 2009


This graph indicates the rate of infection is increasing but not at an exponential rate.

The average death rate from infections stands at 0.44% globally but ranges from 2.817% (in Columbia) to a low of 0.040% (in the UK).  Of course, many countries with significant numbers of infections have reported zero deaths.

With the global population at 6.7Bil the expected global deaths would likely range between 2.7 mil and a possible high of 191 mil.  Likely global deaths are 30 mil.

The graph is derived from raw WHO data found at

2 Comments leave one →
  1. Mridul permalink
    August 31, 2009 8:09 pm

    In India we have a particular flu patterns every year. We have four major seasons and eight sub seasonal change. Between every seasonal switch there is a wave of flu, sometime too sever. This year the season was very mild becuase of little rain, infact we have drought. And as per my experience the winter is going to be mild. This will keep the seasonal flu at low level. I doubt if swine can have high spread in the coming season. And within two or three wave it will become a seasonal flu, hurrah we will survive. Thanks to God for the drought and reduced rains.

  2. April permalink
    June 24, 2009 3:52 pm

    Pretty nice post. I just came across your blog and wanted to say
    that I’ve really enjoyed reading your blog posts. Anyway
    I’ll be subscribing to your feed and I hope you post again soon!

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